On July 1st, 2018, Mexico witnessed a historic moment as leftist politician Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) secured a remarkable victory by receiving more than 53% of the votes, marking the highest margin of victory since 1982. The Wall Street Journal reported that following this landslide win, Mexico's currency appreciated by 3.6%, and the stock market's benchmark index rose by 1.9%. However, the aftermath of this significant event has raised questions about how President-Elect AMLO will impact the currently uncertain US-Mexico relations.

A Brief Overview of AMLO:

AMLO is no stranger to the political arena, having previously run for the presidency three times, coming close to victory in the 2006 and 2012 elections.

He is the founder of the political party known as The National Regeneration Movement, or MORENA.

His tenure as the former Mayor of Mexico City concluded with an impressive 84% approval rating.

His political platform focuses on addressing issues such as crime, economic growth, central bank autonomy, migration, and US-Mexico relations.

Notably, AMLO forgoes security while in public, a risky choice in a country where over 120 politicians were assassinated in 2018 alone.

US-Mexico Relations:

Similar to former US President Trump, President-Elect AMLO is characterized as a nationalist leader who is unlikely to yield to threats or sign agreements that might jeopardize his country's economic stability. This has fueled speculation about potential clashes between their respective agendas. Nonetheless, AMLO aims to cultivate respect from the US and maintain a mutually beneficial relationship between the two nations.

Surprisingly, contrary to widespread expectations, President Trump and President-Elect AMLO have engaged in cordial interactions. President Trump extended his congratulations to the newly elected leader via Twitter, and on July 2nd, they held a productive phone conversation. Despite their differing priorities, the conversation concluded with mutual respect and an optimistic outlook regarding potential compromises on the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

In recent months, both the US and Mexico have increased tariffs on imports, with Trump imposing steel and aluminum tariffs and Mexico retaliating with tariffs on US exports, including pork, apples, cheese, and bourbon. This escalating trade tension poses a risk to both economies, as the US Chamber of Commerce estimates that over 1.7 million jobs depend on trade with Mexico through NAFTA.

President-Elect AMLO is scheduled to take the presidential oath in December, and it appears that there will be either a revised NAFTA agreement or the possibility of a separate trade pact exclusively between Mexico and the US. These developments hold significant implications for the future of US-Mexico relations.

Sources:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/mexicos-president-elect-reassures-markets-1530832994

https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/02/us/five-things-july-2/index.html

http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/395207-trump-discusses-trade-border-security-with-mexican-president-elect

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/why-mexicos-new-president-is-nothing-like-trump-695614/

https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/07/americas/amlo-trump-us-mexico-relations/index.html

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2018/07/02/mexico-new-president-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador/752420002/